The BJP had very little to lose from the by-elections and a lot to gain from a certain political experiment.
The much touted “dress rehearsal” for 2019 elections went gravely wrong for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) that was riding high on the remarkable win in the three north-eastern states. The last-minute alliance of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) stitched together by its leaders Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati proved to be a game changer in Uttar Pradesh’s political landscape. It put up a formidable fight to wrestle the right-wing bastions of Gorakhpur and Phulpur parliamentary seats from BJP. The party also lost the Araria by-polls in Bihar. The political analysts were quick to sound warning bells stating that it was the first sign of the BJP wave on the decline. The problem with such a conclusion is that it misses out on the intricacies involved and overlooks some of the underlying issues that seems to affect a party that was once known for its unity.
The UP by-elections again brought to fore the dynamic nature of Indian politics. On one hand, it reminded everyone why political obituaries should never be written, while on the other, it proved how invincibility in politics is a myth. By burying the hatchet of 25 years with the SP, Mayawati showed her political astuteness and the will to make a seemingly cosmetic alliance a force to reckon with. In the absence of any single party that has got the prowess to stand against the mighty combine of Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo, it might be such an alliance that will aim to rewrite the political history of the nation in the 2019 elections. The Grand Alliance in Bihar and the SP-BSP alliance in UP are all pointers to the strength that can be unleashed by regional parties when they are fighting a common enemy. With the BJP’s clever ploy to outset elected state governments and its leaders resorting to politics of polarisation, there is a palpable discontent that is felt across the country. There is a realisation that the promised “achhe din” will continue to remain elusive.
By fielding a candidate like Upendra Dutta Shukla on whose candidature even Yogi had expressed reservations, the BJP brass succeeded in sending out the message that there will never be an alternate power centre in the party.
Perhaps, there has never been a leader who even with such a brute majority could not bring about any tangible gains in the development front. The rising unemployment rates, mounting bad loans, the Farmers’ Long March, India’s deteriorating relations with its neighbours all point to how oratorical skills should never be considered a substitute for governance. But beyond all these factors, the answer to the UP defeat in all probability lies in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s megalomania. Though Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath Yogi made the by-elections a fight for prestige, the BJP had very little to lose from the elections and a lot to gain with a certain political experiment. It was a long-foregone conclusion that the Gorakhpur seat always went to the head of the Gorakhnath Mutt. By fielding a candidate like Upendra Dutta Shukla on whose candidature even Yogi had expressed reservations, the BJP brass succeeded in sending out the message that there will never be an alternate power centre in the party. The faith that the party’s parent organisation, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) had placed in Yogi to rise up the ladder to become a leader of consequence has been rattled by the by-poll results.
The results have made it clear that the 2019 elections will again be centred on personality politics. A widely circulated video on social media where Modi is seen ignoring the party patriarch and his mentor L.K. Advani at Tripura Chief Minster Biplab Deb’s swearing-in ceremony point to the narcissism and autocracy that has crept in the leadership. Maybe the presence of former Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarkar should have made BJP introspect its governance. Despite having excellent credentials as a leader, Sarkar lost because his party was consumed by internal power struggles and tyranny. Communism has been rotted from the country not because the ideology has no takers, but because its leadership at the national level could not put up a united front and stand for a single cause. Whenever vested interests have taken over, it has scripted the beginning of the end. It needs to be seen if this holds true for BJP that is increasingly concentrating its power in two personalities. The answer to this will be revealed in 2019.
