In the ideological tug of war, the BJP’s recent win over the Communist held states has left the Left wing of the nation dwindling.
After prolonged 25 years of rule in the state of Tripura, CPI (M) has lost the baton of power to its ideological rival, the BJP, in an almost closely fought poll. With the vote difference of just about 3 percent, the Left party managed to get 16 seats while one seat is yet to seek poll. Responding over queries over causes to the defeat, a few veterans of the party blamed money power, ethnic divisive politics and BJP’s alliance with secessionist forces, among others. Tripura was a creation of the British Colonial masters and a plateau region went to current Bangladesh. Remaining part of the hill area was dominated by the ethnic tribal population. Later neighborhood Bengali population migrated to the area and started to dominate the state since their population equaled with the native population.
The ethnic tribal population which crossed 50 percent at the time of independence dwindled to 30 percent in the following years. However, currently, according to the recent 2011 census, along with the Scheduled Caste population, native tribal population has reached the half way mark.
Communism was introduced to the state during the days of independence struggle. The Marxist party reached the corridors of power in 1978 and once again lost to the INC and TJS coalition between 1988 and 93. But once again they returned to power in 1993 and continued till 2018. Interestingly, there was no presence of a challenging third force against the GoP and the Marxists. Though BJP had presence, it received a tiny 1.5 percent vote share in the 2013 legislative poll.
“In the present political milileu, the communist parties in India have witnessed a steady slowdown in terms of the public constituency over which they garnered political influence. More than anything, the present scenario presents an opportunity for these parties to trump up their strategies and be more accessible to the people. The Left parties should catapult the momentous rise of young leaders especially in the university spaces like JNU who are coming to the forefront to lead large group of masses in the public domain.”
Manasi Pradhan, OYSS Women, Honour for Women National Campaign
It is alleged by the Marxists and their supporters that the ruling party of the Center captured power by associating with secessionist party of IPFT. The question raised by several neutral observers is that how could the tribal group have caused the tectonic shift with their negligible (five percent) presence. Instead the GoP which secured about 37 percent of votes during the last poll just managed with 2 percent of total votes polled. It is also crucial that none of the central or state leadership seriously contested the poll following enmasse switching over of prominent leadership towards the Saffron party.
A noteworthy thing is that the Marxists also didn’t expand into any other NEA region other than Tripura. It has shown their influence accrued from none other than the Bengali population. The BJP repeated the same by appointing a Bengali RSS pracharak Biplap Kumar Deb as the new Chief Minister.
Applying the maneuverings of NEA, the BJP would be successful in drowning the INC in states like Kerala, where it has already opened its account. Kerala, still a Marxist stronghold state, is not communally sensitive. By helping the Marxist to increase their lead over the INC through splitting into the later’s vote bank during the last legislative poll, it has established its long-pending success in the state. Here the Marxists face the reality of losing their glory as they have already pushed into the third place in their major stronghold of West Bengal.
“Political-Electoral fortune is most often cyclical. Post Tripura elections it would be the BJP that would be in the defensive. The liberal left combination is showing enough resilience to rightist narrative. The recent farmers agitation in the Maharashtra is pointed in this direction.”
Professor Omprakash Mishra, Jadavpur University
Beyond ideology, Indian Marxists were never successful in spreading their influence across the sub-continent, despite ample opportunities at their disposal. Despite that, they kept the momentum of fall of the INC in late 1980’s through a coalition with VP Singh. It indeed extended their political contribution in making two INC-supported regimes at the center. Two years later NDA was born and kept in power till 2004. Once again they were at the forefront to establish the UPA regime but abandoned it over ideological differences in respect with Indo-US nuclear deal. Since then they see a downward curve, and now stare at a dismal exit from the political arena.
According to several political observers, the left parties in India, especially the Marxists, could call the shots by allaying with parties like AAP or to reinvent themselves as Social Democrats, as such trends are visible even in unimaginable capitalist paradise like the US, where Bernie Sanders-like persona provides some rays of hope in alternative politics.
Therefore, the Left forces in the country have to decide whether to maintain equal distance between the INC and the BJP or to create a national level Mahagathbandhan for the forthcoming big electoral face-off. Otherwise it will be a historical blunder of the left, by the left and for the left.
