Karnataka, known for its digression from the national trend is heading for a tightly contested election this year.
Karnataka is bracing itself for a stormy summer this year, as it heads for elections in May. The past five years have been unprecedented for the state. Politics has been devoid of the kind of sordid affairs that characterised it,, in the past. For the first time in over a decade, a Chief Minister has been able to complete his full term and his leadership remains unchallenged in the ruling party.
A long held bastion of the Congress Party and the erstwhile Janata Parivar, Karnataka, surprised analysts and political pundits alike when it voted for a saffron government headed by B.S. Yeddiyurappa in 2008. With the support of a carefully stitched caste coalition, and riding on an anti-incumbency wave, the BJP rose to power in Karnataka, in its first ever foray into the South of the Vindhyas. However, what followed was not the stability that was expected of a unified government, but bitter infighting and a scandalous government that saw three Chief Ministers in five years.
The elections of 2013 gave a resounding victory to the Congress party, led by Siddaramaiah, whose rise from the lower rungs of the Janata Parivarto helming the Congress to victory is nothing short of cinematic. A champion of Dalits, Backward castes and the Minorities, Siddaramaiah’s popularity largely comes from the AHINDA (Kannada acronym for minorities, OBCs and Dalits) campaign that he spearheaded in the late 1990s. Heading the only major state along with Punjab, with a Congress government, Siddaramaiah has surprisingly managed to hold his ground and even project himself as a formidable opposition to Prime Minister Modi.The Congress government’s populist schemes like the Anna Bhagya Yojana have fortified his image as a pro-poor leader and his charisma as a ‘no nonsense’ leader is sure to appeal to the masses. His handling of the law and order situation in the state in the wake of communal tensions in the coastal belt and the definite stand of the Congress government on issues like the State Flag, minority religion status for the Lingayat Community, and the galvanisation of Kannada pride has turned the tide in its favour. The BJP, on the other hand, finds itself at crossroads with its national agenda on
these issues The Congress is someway better placed in Karnataka than most other states it has fought elections, since 2014.
“The Congress seems to be better placed in Karnataka than most other
states it has fought elections in, since 2014”
This, however, cannot be thought of as a cakewalk for the Congress in the state. The BJP, despite its infighting, enjoys considerable support among the upper castes and urban voters. In the light of communal tensions over the killing of RSS workers in the coastal and hill regions, BJP firebrands like AnanthKumar Hegde, C.T. Ravi and Shobha Karandlaje have managed to arouse Hindu sentiments at a crucial time. This coupled with widespread resentment among the members of the majority community towards what is believed to be minority appeasement policies of the Siddaramaiah government, has given the BJP reason to cheer. Prime Minister Modi’s popularity remains unchallenged among urban middle class voters. The BJP may be facing an uphill task in the state, but it has in its pocket, the one factor that could make or break elections in the country, ‘the Modi factor’. The PM’s recent stopover in Mangaluru on his way to Lakshadweep clearly indicates that the Prime Minister is bracing himself for another battle, this time not against a dilapidated Congress party, but a rather strong one.
Congress President Rahul Gandhi is also set to begin his poll campaign in the state from February 10 to12. Riding high on confidence from the recently concluded Gujarat election campaign and its outcome, which was rather face saving outcome for him and he is expected to go full throttle in Karnataka. However, the fear of a rising BJP seems to reflect in the campaign strategies planned. According to sources, he is likely to visit Hindu temples and priests to lure majority votes. While the Congress and BJP are dominant players in the elections, the significance of regional parties cannot be undermined. Janata Dal (S) headed by Octogenarian regional Satrap H.D.Deve Gowda and his son H.D.Kumarswamy enjoys sizeable support in the Old Mysore region, especially among the members of the prominent Vokkaliga Community. The father-son duo has managed to ruffle some feathers in the otherwise stable tenure of the Siddaramaiah government with their bizarre revelations. The JDS has not shied away from forging alliances both with the BJP and the Congress in the past and could emerge as the king maker, in the event of a hung assembly. A state that is known for its digression from the national trend, Karnataka is heading for a tightly contested battle.
Will the state give a boost of confidence to the Congress party before the general election? Will it embrace the saffron agenda en masse like in the past? Or will it vote for another coalition government with JDS pulling the strings? Only time will tell.
