It is no secret that with a population of 18.6 million, Delhi is under latent seismic threat and falls in the high-risk seismic Zone IV.
P ointing out the recent late-night fire incident where a 32-year-old interior designer saved her neighbours and family in time at a high rise in Gurgaon but was unable to get out and subsequently lost her life because of a locked gate, Disaster management expert Muralee Thummarukudy said that such accidents warrant the need for “working fire safety mechanisms”. “It is unfortunate that lives are lost because of negligence and lack of basic preparedness,” he said, while stating that cities like Gurgaon and Delhi need to take immediate steps to mitigate the risks.
“Fire accidents are on the rise. The other key disaster risks that Delhi is prone to are earthquakes, floods, industrial and chemical hazards and road accidents. In fact, earthquakes threaten the entire city of Delhi at the highest level,” said Thummarukudy, Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction, Crisis Management Branch, UN Environment – a body that sets the global environmental agenda.
“Earthquakes are one of the most predictable disasters. What I have learnt through my training is earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do. So, steps need to be taken at periodic intervals to check the level of preparedness. Drills should become mandatory especially in hospitals and police stations,” he further added, mentioning that depending on the nature of building, nature of soil and nature of construction, the impact could vary.
It is no secret that with a population of 18.6 million, Delhi is under latent seismic threat and falls in the high-risk seismic Zone IV. A large number of high rises, exploding population and illegal construction make Delhi all the more risky.
“Though large-scale devastation has spared Delhi, its location is such that it is prone to devastating earthquakes.”
Having dealt with environmental issues caused by tsunamis, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, oil spills and explosion of ammunition dumps around the world, Thummarukudy warns of adequate and immediate steps to be taken to protect Delhi.
According to a 2016 report on ‘seismic hazard microzonation’ of Delhi brought out by the Ministry of Earth Sciences’ National Center for Seismology, most places along the Yamuna and its flood plain, including highly populated residential colonies in east Delhi, will be among the worst-hit during an earthquake. Thummarukudy also warns of such a danger in case of a flood.
“Yamuna has many dams upstream of Delhi and therefore, most of the time the flow reaching Delhi is minimal. However, in times, when the rains are heavy and dams have to be opened for their safety, it could magnify the flood risks. Such a situation has happened in many countries. This risk is going to increase with changing climate. Risk-based land use planning around river bodies and integrated reservoir management are both needed to reduce flood disasters,” said Thummarukudy, who has analysed the Indian cities for possible disasters and the institutional systems to deal with the same.
He was speaking recently at a talk on ‘How Prepared is Delhi in Disaster Risk Reduction?’ organised by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of South Asia and Kerala Press Club Delhi.
“Every time questions are asked about how the system is unprepared to handle a disaster. Or how India is unprepared or how Delhi is unprepared to manage a disaster. But not often people ask themselves how prepared they are for disasters,” he noted.
But does lack of preparedness emerge from the negativity that surrounds disasters?
“Yes, there is a lack of interest and the belief that disasters take place with somebody else, somewhere else. But that should not be so. Specifically, given the challenges that disasters such as earthquakes and floods pose,” he told Delhi Post.
As a key figure in post-disaster situation and follow-up, with over 25 years of experience in environment and disaster management around the world, Thummarukudy has been advocating for sustainable construction and scientific studies.
“Natural hazards are phenomena which are bound to happen. But it is often the actions (of the people) or the lack of action (of policy makers) that converts into disasters. Disaster damage is real – in brick and mortar terms. This will not come back or be fixed. We must also remember that human costs are huge. So we must have all the interest. Disaster risk reduction is the key,” said Thummarukudy, who holds a PhD in Environmental Engineering from Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur.
He believes that modern engineering practices and big data analytics should be used for improved infrastructure and predictability of disaster in real-time. “I think, we are learning lessons on how to learn from each other so that the net effect is disaster recovery,” said the alumnus of the International Leadership Academy (United Nations University) and the Beahrs’ Fellow at the University of California, Berkeley.
Thummarukudy is of the opinion that “all disasters are preventable”. “Most disasters are predictable, and therefore, preventable. But planning much ahead in time can save lives which is what is not happening enough,” he said.
In case of a major tremor in the post disaster phase, most “earthquake-resistant buildings” may not be able to survive and be reusable as many of such buildings are constructed to only prevent a collapse. While constructions need to take the sustainable route, what is essential is that both the Central and State Government need to take disaster preparedness seriously.
Meanwhile, Thummarukudy stresses on the need for better land use planning, relocation of people from most vulnerable areas, better implementation of building codes, retrofitting of buildings and emergency preparedness at all levels including one’s home as well as community and protection of disabled, migrants and other vulnerable groups for disaster risk reduction.
